In her pop-art decorated office in the heart of Beverly Hills, real-estate broker Rochelle Maize got an early look at who would control the future of Pacific Palisades.
It was eight days after the wildfires broke out—before Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass had appointed a recovery czar, before rebuilding plans had been drawn. Fires still burned, and the air was putrid with the ashes of thousands of torched homes. Even then, the power of California’s insurance companies was becoming evident to Maize.
Her clients buy and sell mansions in crown-jewel neighborhoods where listings bottom out around the single-digit millions. Many pay in cash. But after the Palisades fire, deals in the area kept falling through. One client wanted to go ahead with a seven-figure purchase, risk be damned, even if he had to be self-insured—meaning he would proceed without a policy.
It’s in a great area, Maize recalled the client saying. I’m just willing to take the risk. She thought that was crazy.
The question for Los Angeles isn’t so much how to rebuild the Palisades, a coastal community that is home to some 21,000 people, but who pays if it burns again.
“Writing new policies doesn’t make any sense at this time,” State Farm General, California’s largest property insurer, wrote Tuesday to the state insurance commissioner. To shore up its finances, the company is seeking permission for a 22% rate increase for 1.2 million homeowners.
The state’s fire-recovery dilemma was aired at a recent meeting on the third floor of an office building in Oakland, Calif. Insurance commissioner Ricardo Lara convened executives from State Farm and Consumer Watchdog, a nonprofit advocacy group. By then, the scale of damage from the January wildfires was more clear, around $250 billion.
Lara began the meeting by lamenting a state law dating back to former President Ronald Reagan’s second term, known as Proposition 103. It was intended to make insurance more affordable by limiting rate increases. Disastrous wildfires, floods and earthquakes followed in the decades since. The law allows insurance premiums to go up no more than 6.9% for homeowners without a public hearing.
“I face the task of regulating an insurance market operating under outdated regulations that have not been significantly reformed since the passage of Prop 103 in 1988,” Lara said at the meeting. “This outdated regulatory structure has hindered insurers from actively reflecting the true cost of doing business in California.”
For most homeowners, insurance is the price one pays to not worry about the worst. But California’s consumer protections exposed a stark problem. Proposition 103 effectively offset the true cost of living in some of the state’s most exclusive, high-risk neighborhoods.
“If the insurance commission prohibits insurers from charging a certain amount of money, insurance companies will say no, and then you’re left with people who self-insure,” said Richard Green, the chair of the University of Southern California’s Lusk Center for Real Estate.
The L.A. recovery plans under way are supposed to help mitigate insurers’ concerns, such as requiring fire-resistant building materials and restricting homeowners from planting more flammable shrubs. The proposals have set off political squabbles over residential density and affordability, disagreements complicated by California’s housing shortage.
Yet the city’s rebuilding plans might not matter much, at least until the state and its insurers decide if risky stretches of California’s most desirable real estate are safe enough for human habitation.
This account is based on public documents and interviews with real-estate brokers, academics, city officials, property-development executives, attorneys and displaced residents.
“It’s not just about the Palisades,” said Stuart Gabriel, a professor of finance and real estate at UCLA Anderson School of Management.
“It’s clearly about risks that extend well beyond specific fire zones,” Gabriel said. “It’s also about the very basis of insurance, which is spreading the cost of risk. And so it has implications for every single homeowner in California.”
High-end, high risk
The January wildfires included the Eaton fire, a blaze that destroyed more than 6,500 homes in Altadena, Calif., about a 35-mile drive east of the Palisades. Los Angeles County, which governs the unincorporated inland community, is taking the lead on writing a recovery plan there. Like the Palisades’ effort, it is a massive undertaking.
Altogether, more than 50,000 acres, about the size of Brooklyn, burned and 28 people died in the L.A.-area wildfires. For a time, the air carried asbestos and other toxic particulates. Insurance payouts are expected to swell past $40 billion.
Pacific Palisades was the epicenter of the burn in the Los Angeles area, where more than 16,000 structures were destroyed, according to Cal Fire. It also is one of the most troublesome places to rebuild.